PmWiki.Governance History

Hide minor edits - Show changes to markup

August 15, 2021, at 02:09 AM by 220.109.16.218 -
Changed line 3 from:

The current proposal attempts to strike a balance between deliberative opinion polling1 as envisioned by James Fishkin, and prediction markets governance as envisioned by Robin Hanson. This system would default to the prediction market decision -- one of a class of Market Mechanisms. Nevertheless, it would be possible to prevent that otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the membership has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue. By design, such labored outcomes are highly unlikely. The idea is largely inspired not just by Fishkin and Hanson, but by Michael Abramowicz's view of predictocracy.2, and Mark Klein's Deliberatorium online argument-mapping mechanism.

to:

The current proposal attempts to strike a balance between deliberative opinion polling3 as envisioned by James Fishkin, and prediction markets governance as envisioned by Robin Hanson. This system would default to the prediction market decision -- one of a class of Market Mechanisms. Nevertheless, it would be possible to prevent that otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the membership has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue. By design, such labored outcomes are highly unlikely. The idea is largely inspired not just by Fishkin and Hanson, but also by Michael Abramowicz's view of predictocracy.4, and Mark Klein's Deliberatorium online argument-mapping mechanism.

April 05, 2021, at 03:19 AM by 220.109.16.218 -
Changed line 13 from:

One reasonable objection to any democratic procedure that incorporates Deliberative Opinion Polling (DP) is that DP virtually requires "drafting" members to involve them in deliberation. An alternative is to offer some sort of proxy vote transfer: Whenever someone is randomly selected but doesn't want to participate, can't participate, or feels that someone else's contributions would be more appropriate to the issue at hand, they can hand their vote off to another member. Software such as LiquidFeedback should facilitate this process.

to:

One reasonable objection to any democratic procedure that incorporates Deliberative Opinion Polling (DP) is that DP virtually requires "drafting" members to involve them in deliberation. An alternative is to offer some sort of proxy vote transfer: Whenever someone is randomly selected but doesn't want to participate, can't participate, or feels that someone else's contributions would be more appropriate to the issue at hand, they can hand their vote off to another member. Software such as LiquidFeedback should facilitate this process. The final decision on who joins the deliberations could be made using Evaluative Proportional Representation.

March 18, 2018, at 11:03 PM by 114.190.152.164 - grammar fix
Changed line 3 from:

The current proposal attempts to strike a balance between deliberative opinion polling5 as envisioned by James Fishkin, and prediction markets governance as envisioned by Robin Hanson. This system would default to the prediction market decision -- one of a class of Market Mechanisms. Nevertheless, it would be possible prevent that otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the membership has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue. By design, such labored outcomes are highly unlikely. The idea is largely inspired not just by Fishkin and Hanson, but by Michael Abramowicz's view of predictocracy.6, and Mark Klein's Deliberatorium online argument-mapping mechanism.

to:

The current proposal attempts to strike a balance between deliberative opinion polling7 as envisioned by James Fishkin, and prediction markets governance as envisioned by Robin Hanson. This system would default to the prediction market decision -- one of a class of Market Mechanisms. Nevertheless, it would be possible to prevent that otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the membership has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue. By design, such labored outcomes are highly unlikely. The idea is largely inspired not just by Fishkin and Hanson, but by Michael Abramowicz's view of predictocracy.8, and Mark Klein's Deliberatorium online argument-mapping mechanism.

August 25, 2017, at 02:30 AM by 219.164.205.191 -
Changed lines 1-2 from:

Project Persephone is, among other things, a collection of experiments in governance. Exovivaria, both real and virtual, would host societies requiring some form(s) of government. As well, the organization itself will need to be governed. A uniform framework might be possible.

to:

Project Persephone is, among other things, a collection of experiments in governance. Exovivaria, both real and virtual, would host societies requiring some form(s) of government. As well, the organization itself will need to be governed. A uniform framework should be possible.

Changed line 13 from:

One reasonable objection to any democratic procedure that incorporates Deliberative Opinion Polling (DP) is that DP virtually requires "drafting" members to involve them in deliberation. An alternative is to offer some sort of proxy vote transfer: Whenever someone is randomly selected but doesn't want to participate, can't participate, or feels that someone else's contributions would be more appropriate to the issue at hand, they can hand their vote off to another member. Software such as LiquidFeedback might facilitate this process.

to:

One reasonable objection to any democratic procedure that incorporates Deliberative Opinion Polling (DP) is that DP virtually requires "drafting" members to involve them in deliberation. An alternative is to offer some sort of proxy vote transfer: Whenever someone is randomly selected but doesn't want to participate, can't participate, or feels that someone else's contributions would be more appropriate to the issue at hand, they can hand their vote off to another member. Software such as LiquidFeedback should facilitate this process.

July 28, 2017, at 01:11 AM by 219.164.205.191 - market mechanism link added
Changed line 3 from:

The current proposal attempts to strike a balance between deliberative opinion polling9 as envisioned by James Fishkin, and prediction markets governance as envisioned by Robin Hanson. This system would default to the prediction market decision. Nevertheless, it would be possible prevent that otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the membership has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue. By design, such labored outcomes are highly unlikely. The idea is largely inspired not just by Fishkin and Hanson, but by Michael Abramowicz's view of predictocracy.10, and Mark Klein's Deliberatorium online argument-mapping mechanism.

to:

The current proposal attempts to strike a balance between deliberative opinion polling11 as envisioned by James Fishkin, and prediction markets governance as envisioned by Robin Hanson. This system would default to the prediction market decision -- one of a class of Market Mechanisms. Nevertheless, it would be possible prevent that otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the membership has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue. By design, such labored outcomes are highly unlikely. The idea is largely inspired not just by Fishkin and Hanson, but by Michael Abramowicz's view of predictocracy.12, and Mark Klein's Deliberatorium online argument-mapping mechanism.

July 28, 2017, at 12:59 AM by 219.164.205.191 - more and better cites
Changed line 3 from:

The current proposal attempts to strike a balance between deliberative opinion polling13 and prediction markets. This system would default to the prediction market decision. Nevertheless, it would be possible prevent that otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the membership has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue. By design, such labored outcomes are highly unlikely.

to:

The current proposal attempts to strike a balance between deliberative opinion polling14 as envisioned by James Fishkin, and prediction markets governance as envisioned by Robin Hanson. This system would default to the prediction market decision. Nevertheless, it would be possible prevent that otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the membership has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue. By design, such labored outcomes are highly unlikely. The idea is largely inspired not just by Fishkin and Hanson, but by Michael Abramowicz's view of predictocracy.15, and Mark Klein's Deliberatorium online argument-mapping mechanism.

March 02, 2017, at 07:43 PM by 103.5.140.170 - mojibake
Changed line 5 from:

From e-mail to Hélène Landemore:16

to:

From e-mail to Hélène Landemore:17

October 31, 2012, at 12:39 PM by 219.167.13.29 -
Changed lines 13-14 from:

One reasonable objection to any democratic procedure that incorporates Deliberative Opinion Polling (DP) is that DP virtually requires "drafting" members to involve them in deliberation. One alternative is to offer some sort of proxy vote transfer whenever someone is randomly selected but doesn't want to participate, can't participate, or feels that someone else's contributions would be more appropriate to the issue at hand. Software such as LiquidFeedback might facilitate this process.

to:

One reasonable objection to any democratic procedure that incorporates Deliberative Opinion Polling (DP) is that DP virtually requires "drafting" members to involve them in deliberation. An alternative is to offer some sort of proxy vote transfer: Whenever someone is randomly selected but doesn't want to participate, can't participate, or feels that someone else's contributions would be more appropriate to the issue at hand, they can hand their vote off to another member. Software such as LiquidFeedback might facilitate this process.

October 26, 2012, at 01:09 AM by 219.167.13.29 -
Changed lines 5-6 from:

From e-mail to Helene Landemore:18

to:

From e-mail to Hélène Landemore:19

Changed lines 13-14 from:

One reasonable objection to any democratic procedure that incorporates Deliberative Opinion Polling (DP) is that DP virtually requires "drafting" members to involve themselves in deliberation. One alternative is to offer some sort of proxy vote transfer whenever someone is randomly selected but doesn't want to participate, can't participate, or feels that someone else's contributions would be more appropriate to the issue at hand. Software such as LiquidFeedback might facilitate this process.

to:

One reasonable objection to any democratic procedure that incorporates Deliberative Opinion Polling (DP) is that DP virtually requires "drafting" members to involve them in deliberation. One alternative is to offer some sort of proxy vote transfer whenever someone is randomly selected but doesn't want to participate, can't participate, or feels that someone else's contributions would be more appropriate to the issue at hand. Software such as LiquidFeedback might facilitate this process.

September 15, 2012, at 04:18 AM by 114.181.135.35 -
Changed lines 1-4 from:

Project Persephone is, among other things, a collection of experiments in governance. Exovivaria, both real and virtual, would host societies requiring some form(s) of government; as well, the organization itself will need to be governed. A uniform framework might be possible.

The current main proposal attempts to strike a compromise between deliberative opinion polling20 and prediction markets. This system would default to the prediction market decision. Nevertheless, it would be possible prevent otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the electorate has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue. Such labored outcomes are highly unlikely, however, by design.

to:

Project Persephone is, among other things, a collection of experiments in governance. Exovivaria, both real and virtual, would host societies requiring some form(s) of government. As well, the organization itself will need to be governed. A uniform framework might be possible.

The current proposal attempts to strike a balance between deliberative opinion polling21 and prediction markets. This system would default to the prediction market decision. Nevertheless, it would be possible prevent that otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the membership has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue. By design, such labored outcomes are highly unlikely.

Changed lines 13-14 from:

One reasonable objection to any democratic procedure that incorporates Deliberative Opinion Polling (DP) is that DP virtually requires "drafting" members to involve themselves in deliberation. One alternative is to offer some sort of proxy vote transfer whenever someone is randomly selected but doesn't want to participate, can't participate, or feels that someone else's deliberation is more appropriate to the issue at hand. Software such as LiquidFeedback might facilitate this process.

to:

One reasonable objection to any democratic procedure that incorporates Deliberative Opinion Polling (DP) is that DP virtually requires "drafting" members to involve themselves in deliberation. One alternative is to offer some sort of proxy vote transfer whenever someone is randomly selected but doesn't want to participate, can't participate, or feels that someone else's contributions would be more appropriate to the issue at hand. Software such as LiquidFeedback might facilitate this process.

September 15, 2012, at 04:16 AM by 114.181.135.35 -
Added lines 13-14:

One reasonable objection to any democratic procedure that incorporates Deliberative Opinion Polling (DP) is that DP virtually requires "drafting" members to involve themselves in deliberation. One alternative is to offer some sort of proxy vote transfer whenever someone is randomly selected but doesn't want to participate, can't participate, or feels that someone else's deliberation is more appropriate to the issue at hand. Software such as LiquidFeedback might facilitate this process.

August 03, 2012, at 12:09 AM by 114.181.135.35 -
Changed lines 3-4 from:

The current main proposal attempts to strike a compromise between deliberative opinion polling22 and prediction markets. This system would default to the prediction market decision. Nevertheless, it would be possible prevent otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the electorate has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue; such a labored outcomes are highly unlikely, however, by design.

to:

The current main proposal attempts to strike a compromise between deliberative opinion polling23 and prediction markets. This system would default to the prediction market decision. Nevertheless, it would be possible prevent otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the electorate has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue. Such labored outcomes are highly unlikely, however, by design.

August 03, 2012, at 12:03 AM by 114.181.135.35 -
Changed lines 3-4 from:

The current main proposal attempts to strike a compromise between deliberative opinion polling24 and prediction markets. This system would default to the prediction market decision. Nevertheless, it would be possible prevent otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the electorate has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue; such a labored outcomes are highly unlikely, however, by design.

to:

The current main proposal attempts to strike a compromise between deliberative opinion polling25 and prediction markets. This system would default to the prediction market decision. Nevertheless, it would be possible prevent otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the electorate has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue; such a labored outcomes are highly unlikely, however, by design.

July 07, 2012, at 08:19 AM by 114.181.135.35 -
Changed lines 5-6 from:

From e-mail to Helene Landemore:

to:

From e-mail to Helene Landemore:26

July 07, 2012, at 08:15 AM by 114.181.135.35 -
Changed lines 1-2 from:

Project Persephone is, among other things, a collection of experiments in governance. Exovivaria, both real and virtual exovivaria, would host societies requiring some form(s) of government; as well, the organization itself will need to be governed. A uniform framework might be possible.

to:

Project Persephone is, among other things, a collection of experiments in governance. Exovivaria, both real and virtual, would host societies requiring some form(s) of government; as well, the organization itself will need to be governed. A uniform framework might be possible.

Changed lines 5-6 from:

From e-mail to Helene Landemore

to:

From e-mail to Helene Landemore:

July 07, 2012, at 08:08 AM by 114.181.135.35 -
Changed lines 1-2 from:

Project Persephone is, among other things, a collection of experiments in governance. The current main proposal attempts to strike a compromise between deliberative opinion polling27 and prediction markets.

to:

Project Persephone is, among other things, a collection of experiments in governance. Exovivaria, both real and virtual exovivaria, would host societies requiring some form(s) of government; as well, the organization itself will need to be governed. A uniform framework might be possible.

The current main proposal attempts to strike a compromise between deliberative opinion polling28 and prediction markets. This system would default to the prediction market decision. Nevertheless, it would be possible prevent otherwise-automatic policy implementation through a series of policy-recall petitions and deliberations. Theoretically, this procedure can converge on pure majority rule, but only after much of the electorate has been required to participate in formal deliberations on the issue; such a labored outcomes are highly unlikely, however, by design.

July 07, 2012, at 07:58 AM by 114.181.135.35 -
Changed lines 1-2 from:

Project Persephone is, among other things, a collection of experiments in governance.

to:

Project Persephone is, among other things, a collection of experiments in governance. The current main proposal attempts to strike a compromise between deliberative opinion polling29 and prediction markets.

Changed lines 5-8 from:
I think Hanson has said that futarchy30 wouldn't really work unless the futarchic policy decision were automatic. Obviously, that's not very democratic by any reasonable definition.
But maybe you could make it automatic unless challenged by a majority in plebiscite, with some reasonable number of petition signers (say, 1% of the electorate) required for the challenge. At which point it would be subject to deliberative polling. If it passed the deliberative poll, it would be scheduled for implementation but again subject to halting by petition-triggered plebiscite (perhaps requiring a higher fraction of signatures this time, like 5%). At which point you deliberatively poll again, randomly selecting only among those who hadn't been through any earlier deliberative poll on the issue. If you keep repeating, *theoretically*, this can get to 100% voter representation eventually. But at that point, everyone who might vote against it has already been represented in deliberative polling -- why would a majority vote against it in a referendum if they'd voted for it in deliberation? (Unless for some very good reason, like discovering fraud in the preparation of deliberative poll materials.) And if the petition signature threshold requirements keep going higher, the repeated-stalling process probably halts long before you get anywhere near 100%.
to:
I think Hanson has said that futarchy31 wouldn't really work unless the futarchic policy decision were automatic. Obviously, that's not very democratic by any reasonable definition.
But maybe you could make it automatic unless challenged by a majority in plebiscite, with some reasonable number of petition signers (say, 1% of the electorate) required for the challenge. At which point it would be subject to deliberative polling. If it passed the deliberative poll, it would be scheduled for implementation but again subject to halting by petition-triggered plebiscite (perhaps requiring a higher fraction of signatures this time, like 5%). At which point you deliberatively poll again, randomly selecting only among those who hadn't been through any earlier deliberative poll on the issue. If you keep repeating, theoretically, this can get to 100% voter representation eventually. But at that point, everyone who might vote against it has already been represented in deliberative polling -- why would a majority vote against it in a referendum if they'd voted for it in deliberation? (Unless for some very good reason, like discovering fraud in the preparation of deliberative poll materials.) And if the petition signature threshold requirements keep going higher, the repeated-stalling process probably halts long before you get anywhere near 100%.
July 07, 2012, at 07:50 AM by 114.181.135.35 -
Changed lines 7-8 from:
But maybe you could make it automatic *unless* challenged by a majority in plebiscite, with some reasonable number of petition signers (say, 1% of the electorate) required for the challenge. At which point it would be subject to deliberative polling. If it passed the deliberative poll, it would be scheduled for implementation but again subject to halting by petition-triggered plebiscite (perhaps requiring a higher fraction of signatures this time, like 5%). At which point you deliberatively poll again, randomly selecting only among those who hadn't been through any earlier deliberative poll on the issue. If you keep repeating, *theoretically*, this can get to 100% voter representation eventually. But at that point, everyone who might vote against it has already been represented in deliberative polling -- why would a majority vote against it in a referendum if they'd voted for it in deliberation? (Unless for some very good reason, like discovering fraud in the preparation of deliberative poll materials.) And if the petition signature threshold requirements keep going higher, the repeated-stalling process probably halts long before you get anywhere near 100%.
to:
But maybe you could make it automatic unless challenged by a majority in plebiscite, with some reasonable number of petition signers (say, 1% of the electorate) required for the challenge. At which point it would be subject to deliberative polling. If it passed the deliberative poll, it would be scheduled for implementation but again subject to halting by petition-triggered plebiscite (perhaps requiring a higher fraction of signatures this time, like 5%). At which point you deliberatively poll again, randomly selecting only among those who hadn't been through any earlier deliberative poll on the issue. If you keep repeating, *theoretically*, this can get to 100% voter representation eventually. But at that point, everyone who might vote against it has already been represented in deliberative polling -- why would a majority vote against it in a referendum if they'd voted for it in deliberation? (Unless for some very good reason, like discovering fraud in the preparation of deliberative poll materials.) And if the petition signature threshold requirements keep going higher, the repeated-stalling process probably halts long before you get anywhere near 100%.
July 07, 2012, at 07:43 AM by 114.181.135.35 -
Changed lines 5-6 from:
I think Hanson has said that futarchy wouldn't really work unless the futarchic policy decision were automatic. Obviously, that's not very democratic by any reasonable definition.
to:
I think Hanson has said that futarchy32 wouldn't really work unless the futarchic policy decision were automatic. Obviously, that's not very democratic by any reasonable definition.
Added lines 10-11:
 

1 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

2 Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making, Michael Abramowicz, Yale University Press, 2008, ISBN 0300115997

3 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

4 Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making, Michael Abramowicz, Yale University Press, 2008, ISBN 0300115997

5 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

6 Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making, Michael Abramowicz, Yale University Press, 2008, ISBN 0300115997

7 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

8 Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making, Michael Abramowicz, Yale University Press, 2008, ISBN 0300115997

9 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

10 Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making, Michael Abramowicz, Yale University Press, 2008, ISBN 0300115997

11 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

12 Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making, Michael Abramowicz, Yale University Press, 2008, ISBN 0300115997

13 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

14 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

15 Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making, Michael Abramowicz, Yale University Press, 2008, ISBN 0300115997

16 A Yale political science professor whose theme is "democratic reason"; see e.g., "Hélène Landemore on why we’re all in this together", 6 June 2012, Princeton University Press blog

17 A Yale political science professor whose theme is "democratic reason"; see e.g., "Hélène Landemore on why we're all in this together", 6 June 2012, Princeton University Press blog

18 A Yale political science professor whose theme is "democratic reason"; see e.g., "Hélène Landemore on why we’re all in this together", 6 June 2012, Princeton University Press blog

19 A Yale political science professor whose theme is "democratic reason"; see e.g., "Hélène Landemore on why we’re all in this together", 6 June 2012, Princeton University Press blog

20 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

21 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

22 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

23 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

24 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

25 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

26 A Yale political science professor whose theme is "democratic reason"; see e.g., "Hélène Landemore on why we’re all in this together", 6 June 2012, Princeton University Press blog

27 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

28 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

29 Fishkin, James S.: Democracy and Deliberation: New Directions for Democratic Reform, ISBN 0-300-05161-1, Yale University Press, 1991

30 Hanson, Robin (August 2000). "Futarchy: Vote values, but bet beliefs"

31 Hanson, Robin (August 2000). "Futarchy: Vote values, but bet beliefs"

32 Hanson, Robin (August 2000). "Futarchy: Vote values, but bet beliefs"

September 09, 2011, at 01:06 AM by 219.165.170.203 -
September 08, 2011, at 07:56 AM by 219.165.170.203 -
Added lines 1-9:

Project Persephone is, among other things, a collection of experiments in governance.

From e-mail to Helene Landemore

I think Hanson has said that futarchy wouldn't really work unless the futarchic policy decision were automatic. Obviously, that's not very democratic by any reasonable definition.
But maybe you could make it automatic *unless* challenged by a majority in plebiscite, with some reasonable number of petition signers (say, 1% of the electorate) required for the challenge. At which point it would be subject to deliberative polling. If it passed the deliberative poll, it would be scheduled for implementation but again subject to halting by petition-triggered plebiscite (perhaps requiring a higher fraction of signatures this time, like 5%). At which point you deliberatively poll again, randomly selecting only among those who hadn't been through any earlier deliberative poll on the issue. If you keep repeating, *theoretically*, this can get to 100% voter representation eventually. But at that point, everyone who might vote against it has already been represented in deliberative polling -- why would a majority vote against it in a referendum if they'd voted for it in deliberation? (Unless for some very good reason, like discovering fraud in the preparation of deliberative poll materials.) And if the petition signature threshold requirements keep going higher, the repeated-stalling process probably halts long before you get anywhere near 100%.
This obviously doesn't work for decisions with certain time limits. But as you point out, decision-procedures might be chosen depending on how they rank in terms of urgency, political salience and so on. More likely, a bigger problem would be that the "futarchs" might conflate their probabilities of political success for an unpopular decision with their odds for success if the decision were made in spite of its unpopularity. I.e., the sentiment "that'll never work because people won't allow it" could muddy estimates of probability for "that'll work if people did allow it." It might be worth some experiments to find out whether my conjectured "subjective probability dissonance" is real or not. (Assuming my idea is even worth thinking about for the years required to fund such research.)
GlossyBlue theme adapted by David Gilbert
Powered by PmWiki